Baba-Ahmed predicts Tinubu’s defeat in 2027, saying a free and credible election could unseat the President and warning over Nigeria’s democracy
National Chairman of the Peoples Redemption Party, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu could lose the 2027 presidential election if Nigerians are given a free, fair and credible vote, arguing that the recent Osun governorship election exposed vulnerabilities within the ruling All Progressives Congress.
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Baba-Ahmed made the claim on Wednesday during an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today, where he pointed to Governor Ademola Adeleke’s re-election in Osun as evidence that the APC can be defeated despite its control of the presidency, National Assembly and a large majority of state governments.
The PRP chairman’s comments come just days after the August 15 Osun governorship election, in which Adeleke, the Accord Party candidate, secured a second term after defeating APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji.
The Independent National Electoral Commission declared Adeleke the winner after results from all 30 local government areas were collated.
Adeleke polled 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815, winning 19 local government areas to the APC candidate’s 11. African Democratic Congress candidate Najeem Salaam finished a distant third with 17,180 votes.
For Baba-Ahmed, the result carries significance beyond Osun because opposition parties did not form a formal coalition to defeat the APC.
“APC was trounced in Osun. We didn’t even see a coalition or collaboration or a gang-up against the APC. Parties all competed against one another. Yet, APC was defeated,” he said.
He argued that the result demonstrated that the ruling party’s institutional reach should not automatically be interpreted as electoral dominance.
The PRP leader also dismissed speculation that Adeleke’s victory may have been facilitated by an understanding between the governor and President Tinubu.
“We have even heard stories that there was a deal between President Tinubu and Governor Ademola Adeleke. But we don’t believe that,” Baba-Ahmed said.
The Osun election was closely watched because of its potential implications for the 2027 political contest.
Adeleke had moved from the Peoples Democratic Party to the Accord Party ahead of the election, while the APC mounted a substantial challenge through Oyebamiji. The final margin of 66,252 votes gave Adeleke a clear victory.
Baba-Ahmed believes the political lesson from Osun is that opposition parties may not necessarily need a broad electoral alliance to challenge the APC.
His assessment of the ruling party was particularly severe. He described the APC as “a monster eating itself up and eating everybody up”, accusing the party of being weakened by internal contradictions.
Baba-Ahmed also questioned why Tinubu would remain politically unsettled despite what he described as extensive support from governors and the National Assembly.
“He appears to have garnered the support of 31 governors and quite possibly about 75 per cent of the National Assembly, yet he’s still uncomfortable. It’s politically monstrous,” he said.
The prediction represents a striking assessment from the leader of one of Nigeria’s opposition parties, but it remains a political judgement rather than an electoral forecast based on polling data.
The 2027 contest is still months away, and the eventual strength of the major opposition parties, their candidates, alliances and campaign structures will influence the race.
Baba-Ahmed’s own political party has also been positioning itself ahead of the next general election.
In May, INEC updated its portal to recognise him as the PRP’s national chairman following the party’s national convention in Abuja on March 28.
His argument ultimately rests on the credibility of the electoral process.
“If it’s a credible, free and fair election, I assure you, Tinubu will lose. I won’t say before 12 noon. Maybe before 4 pm,” he said.
The remark has added a provocative dimension to the growing political debate around 2027, with opposition figures increasingly focusing not only on candidates and alliances but also on the integrity of the institutions responsible for conducting the election.
Baba-Ahmed urged Nigerians not to offer premature praise to the Independent National Electoral Commission, saying the commission would need to demonstrate its impartiality when conducting a presidential election in which the incumbent is seeking another term.
“Nobody should praise INEC until it can actually conduct an election in which the President is a contestant,” he said.
He warned that failure to deliver a credible election could have serious consequences for Nigeria’s democratic stability.
The comments come as political activity intensifies ahead of 2027.
Tinubu has yet to face the full presidential campaign, while opposition parties continue to debate whether individual contests, strategic alliances or a broader coalition will offer the strongest challenge to the governing APC.
Also read: Atiku makes fresh Tinubu certificate forgery claim
For Baba-Ahmed, however, the central issue is simpler: if Nigerians are allowed to freely choose their next president, he believes the outcome will be decisive against Tinubu.
